Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16d7…1c40
crypto · 631 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,677 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,577 · open +$156
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$989
Realized−$1,577
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses275 / 328
Open positions28
Markets (closed)603 / 631
History coverage47d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day50.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 28 History 603 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,720
7 days−$1,598
14 days−$1,554
30 days−$1,554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 37¢ 68¢ $273 $492 +$219 (+80%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $92 $78 −$14 (-15%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 50¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+57%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 44¢ 37¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will BNB reach $800 in June? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $22 $8 −$14 (-65%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $111 −$75 -68%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $92 −$57 -62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $33 −$20 -61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $28 −$21 -75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $37 −$27 -71%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $30 −$22 -74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $15 −$10 -67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $153 −$82 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$26 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$37 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$38 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$28 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$68 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$34 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$34 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $97 +$62 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$77 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $66 +$20 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$32 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $79 −$29 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$27 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$1,286
tech 6% −$115
other 5% −$10
finance 1% −$10
weather 0% −$4
world 0% +$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 37¢ $279 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 23¢ $95 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 7¢ $36 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 13¢ $167 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 6¢ $35 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 5¢ $71 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 33¢ $46 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 34¢ $65 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 40¢ $45 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $25 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $70 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 569 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 44% -16.3%
≤30d 583 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 44% -16.1%
≤90d 603 -9.5% -18.2% 46% 44% -16.1%
all 603 -9.5% -18.2% 46% 44% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 44% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 43% -24.2%
15% -33.1% 39% -31.5%
20% -39.7% 34% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $988.76 · official $988.78 (match) · 2819 history records