Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

16 0x16db…3542 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$49 · open −$49

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%6W / 10L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit15%portable

Net worth$1,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$35

30 days+$31

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-20.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	16	-12.2%	-20.5%	38%	38%	+12.8%
≤90d	16	-12.2%	-20.5%	38%	38%	+12.8%
all	16	-12.2%	-20.5%	38%	38%	+12.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.5%	38%	+12.8%
10%	-28.1%	38%	+2.0%
15%	-35.1%	38%	-7.9%
20%	-41.4%	25%	-16.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$1,098

Realized+$49

Unrealized−$49

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses6 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions11

Markets (closed)16 / 27

History coverage16d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 11 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$150	$147	−$3 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	54¢	54¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	39¢	38¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	44¢	42¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	4¢	$47	$14	−$32 (-69%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$40	+$19	+48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$51	+$25	+50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-90%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$2	$0	-10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$2	$0	-11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$3	$0	-2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2	+$1	+60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$2	−$1	-70%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$1	+$1	+105%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay?	Jun 13	$2	+$1	+67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$3	−$3	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	BUY Yes	62¢	$152	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	BUY Yes	52¢	$152	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	25¢	$153	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$102	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$40	7d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$48	11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	63¢	$7	12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	5¢	$0	12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$2	12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$2	12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	17¢	$3	12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	49¢	$4	13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4	13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2	14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$2	14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5	SELL Over	46¢	$0	14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$2	14d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	SELL No	25¢	$1	14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$2	15d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay?	BUY Yes	59¢	$2	16d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$1	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,098.12 · official $1,098.48 (match) · 42 history records