Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
16 0x16dc…72ed politics 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$129 (-0%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$18
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$44
other 26% −$77
sports 11% $0
world 5% −$22
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -14.2% -22.4% 10% 8% -10.2%
all 115 -4.2% -13.4% 15% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 10% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 10% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 9% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$940) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$8 · ×4.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$696
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage122d
Avg bet$617
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $697 $696 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,210 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,722 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,719 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 04 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $412 +$2 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $873 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $806 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,907 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $902 +$233 +26%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,105 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $413 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $344 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $438 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $418 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $313 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $301 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $316 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $387 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $352 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $413 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $454 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $654 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,790 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $1,273 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $697 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,136 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,134 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,139 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,209 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,210 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,061 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,063 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $859 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $861 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,130 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,157 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,159 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $940 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $940 13d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $661 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $661 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $578 19d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $579 19d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $658 19d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $659 19d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $544 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.15 · official $696.15 (match) · 388 history records