Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16dd…adf5 other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$872 (+4%) realized +$874 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%41W / 25L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day156.3pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$220
14 days+$308
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$369
sports 26% +$234
culture 1% +$27
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$7
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +30.8% +18.3% 52% 26% -7.3%
≤30d 66 +26.1% +14.1% 62% 30% -6.1%
≤90d 66 +26.1% +14.1% 62% 30% -6.1%
all 66 +26.1% +14.1% 62% 30% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.1% 30% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here +3.1% 20% -15.1%
15% -6.8% 17% -23.3%
20% -16.0% 14% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,048
Realized+$874
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses41 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions19
Markets (closed)66 / 60
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$328
Trades / day156.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $120 $131 +$11 (+9%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $99 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $39 $31 −$8 (-20%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+83%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+127%)
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -23868%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +674%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +6249%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $8 −$5 -67%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,008 +$12 +1%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $66 +$11 +16%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $500 +$200 +40%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $152 +$13 +8%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $450 +$29 +6%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $66 +$14 +22%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $900 −$24 -3%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +195%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $63 +$7 +10%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $44 +$7 +16%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $200 +$18 +9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $3,832 +$16 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $374 +$6 +2%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 +$5 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 10 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $127 +$20 +16%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 28m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $70 28m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $82 37m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 43m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 13¢ $55 57m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $96 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 1h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 87¢ $89 2h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 86¢ $88 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $144 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $66 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $108 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $37 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $66 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,047.88 · official $1,047.87 (match) · 3500 history records