Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x16e0…0893 sports 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+7%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%78W / 58L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$15
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$16
other 27% +$15
world 1% −$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +9.7% -0.7% 57% 57% -3.4%
≤30d 136 +8.1% -2.2% 57% 54% -2.7%
≤90d 136 +8.1% -2.2% 57% 54% -2.7%
all 136 +8.1% -2.2% 57% 54% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 54% -2.7%
10% -11.6% 51% -12.0%
15% -20.1% 50% -20.5%
20% -27.9% 42% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses78 / 58
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +84%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 +$1 +42%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 +$4 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 +$4 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF Taipei: Mao Mushika vs Yu-Chen Lin Jun 17 $2 −$1 -27%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$4 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$3 +86%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +343%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 49¢ $15 3m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $3 4m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 45¢ $5 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 11h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 46¢ $3 19h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 35h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $2 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $3 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $4 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 53¢ $5 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $4 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 46h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $4 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $17.98 · 237 history records