Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16e0…e280 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$10
world 27% −$4
economics 18% +$1
politics 2% $0
sports 0% −$12
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 +0.3% -9.3% 28% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 36 -5.6% -14.6% 22% 3% -9.9%
all 37 -8.1% -16.9% 22% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 3% -10.3%
10% -24.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage486d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $67 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $151 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $63 −$2 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $21 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $16 −$3 -17%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $514 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $261 −$9 -3%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $549 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $287 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
New Mexico vs. Boise State Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $29 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $29 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $33 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 43h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $6 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records