Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

16 0x16e2…9faf other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$11 (+15%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+16.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+28.9%	+16.7%	75%	75%	+27.4%
≤30d	4	+28.9%	+16.7%	75%	75%	+27.4%
≤90d	4	+28.9%	+16.7%	75%	75%	+27.4%
all	4	+28.9%	+16.7%	75%	75%	+27.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.7%	75%	+27.4%
10%	+5.5%	75%	+15.2%
15%	-4.7%	50%	+4.1%
20%	-14.0%	0%	-6.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +41% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$0 · ×7096.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×21290.76 per $1 lost it wins $21290.76

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$15	+$7	+49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$1	$0	-0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$51	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$23	6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$5	9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$5	11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	19¢	$1	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$4	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$3	14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	15h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.67 · official $49.67 (match) · 10 history records