Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
16 0x16e6…7180 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate74%39W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$5
crypto 11% +$2
politics 2% $0
other 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.7% -8.9% 74% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses39 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage545d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $38 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $5,112 −$5 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 13 $28 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Predators Apr 02 $6 +$4 +67%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $56 $0 -1%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 21 $23 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by January 31? Feb 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 21 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 04 $21 −$1 -4%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 04 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 29d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 60d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 92d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $5 148d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 150d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $39 151d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $5 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $52 181d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $47 212d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $38 242d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $14 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $33 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 300d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $37 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 332d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $42 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.46 · official $63.46 (match) · 111 history records