Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
16 0x16f0…aba5 sports 590 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,474 (+1%) realized +$2,348 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%431W / 144L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$320est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$6,906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$584
world 22% +$2,853
other 19% +$1,106
finance 13% +$795
tech 4% −$59
politics 3% −$67
crypto 2% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -2.8% -12.0% 69% 26% -13.4%
≤30d 173 -3.2% -12.4% 75% 27% -11.5%
≤90d 575 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 34% -6.9%
all 575 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 34% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 34% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 15% -15.8%
15% -24.4% 7% -24.0%
20% -31.8% 4% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$79 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$6,906
Realized+$2,348
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses431 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$320
Open positions15
Markets (closed)575 / 590
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$326
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 86¢ 91¢ $2,137 $2,249 +$112 (+5%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 89¢ 88¢ $796 $790 −$6 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 85¢ $747 $761 +$14 (+2%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $762 $750 −$12 (-2%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $737 $743 +$6 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $322 $348 +$26 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 86¢ 93¢ $309 $334 +$25 (+8%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $289 $289 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $251 $257 +$6 (+2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $125 $119 −$6 (-5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 69¢ 62¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-11%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $46 $36 −$11 (-23%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 89¢ 52¢ $53 $32 −$22 (-41%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 88¢ 96¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Jun 17 $800 −$7 -1%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 17 $848 −$598 -70%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 16 $627 −$368 -59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $670 +$80 +12%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 16 $437 −$93 -21%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $701 +$359 +51%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $114 +$7 +6%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $325 +$13 +4%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $35 −$3 -8%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $268 −$75 -28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $1,302 +$10 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $23 −$5 -21%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Jun 15 $297 +$15 +5%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $336 −$10 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 15 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Falcons qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $101 +$12 +11%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $1,740 +$41 +2%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 14 $390 +$40 +10%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 14 $1,205 +$54 +4%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $61 −$18 -29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $627 +$72 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 14 $85 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $595 −$467 -78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $360 +$16 +4%
Will FURIA qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $187 −$62 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,924 +$79 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $44 +$6 +13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $70 +$3 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 13 $406 +$10 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $234 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $295 +$18 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $265 +$12 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $271 −$271 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $124 −$9 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $295 +$55 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $142 +$5 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $184 +$8 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $302 −$222 -74%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Jun 12 $177 +$18 +10%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $11 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $56 +$7 +13%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $352 +$31 +9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $21 −$5 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 77¢ $273 30m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $108 52m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $84 52m
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $67 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $25 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $349 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $31 2h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $180 3h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $348 3h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY No 62¢ $46 4h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $46 4h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $31 5h
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 5h
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 5h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5h
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $36 5h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 6h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 6h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY No 91¢ $25 6h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 7h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 7h
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $167 8h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 80¢ $79 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $84 11h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY No 88¢ $167 11h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $273 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 86¢ $456 12h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY No 87¢ $80 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,905.71 · official $6,904.64 (match) · 3500 history records