Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
16 0x16f1…2cff other 24 markets active 3d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$4
other 27% −$3
world 13% −$3
crypto 12% −$3
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,103) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage72d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,061 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,160 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,162 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 16 $1,105 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Apr 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Fano be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $90 2d
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $77 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $781 8d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $320 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $29 8d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,103 8d
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,083 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,156 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records