Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16f2…8d05
other · 51 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$114 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$114 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage160d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 0 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$86
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-13? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-03-08? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-04? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Yes 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-08? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? No 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $577 −$107 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $385 +$13 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $239 +$7 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $91 −$90 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 +$4 +56%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $498 +$97 +20%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 +$5 +102%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 27 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $9 +$6 +61%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 18 $55 −$28 -51%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $3 +$1 +49%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $2 +$4 +222%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Mar 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $4 +$6 +138%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $8 +$6 +72%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $3 +$4 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 07 $14 +$10 +69%
Will PSV win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $13 +$20 +156%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $10 +$16 +163%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-01-02? Jan 04 $19 +$9 +46%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $22 +$12 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 56% −$86
world 24% +$101
other 15% −$17
crypto 4% −$93
sports 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 79¢ $470 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 96¢ $577 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 100¢ $398 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL No 100¢ $246 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 96¢ $385 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 97¢ $88 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 97¢ $151 7h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $595 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $498 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $7 17d
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 59d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 69d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 69d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 72d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 72d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 77d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 77d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 77d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 77d
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 77d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 78d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 78d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 84d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY No 24¢ $2 86d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 89d
Will PSV win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 6 -6.1% -15.0% 67% 33% -13.3%
≤90d 18 -35.2% -41.3% 39% 28% -15.8%
all 51 -12.6% -20.9% 47% 43% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 43% -14.3%
10% -28.5% 41% -22.5%
15% -35.4% 41% -30.0%
20% -41.7% 33% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records