Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x16f3…1263 sports 105 markets active 9h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-2%) realized −$92 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%59W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% +$86
other 18% +$147
finance 12% +$26
tech 12% −$320
crypto 7% −$2
culture 7% −$91
politics 7% −$19
economics 6% +$7
world 3% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.1% -26.8% 55% 55% -14.5%
≤30d 12 -11.2% -19.6% 58% 58% +0.1%
≤90d 14 -13.9% -22.1% 57% 57% -1.6%
all 100 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 44% -11.6%
10% -30.3% 27% -20.1%
15% -37.0% 20% -27.8%
20% -43.2% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses59 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)100 / 105
History coverage273d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $28 +$22 +76%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Mar 23 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $10 +$4 +45%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) Mar 01 $10 +$5 +47%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $10 +$5 +47%
Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $10 +$5 +49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 27 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 17 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 12 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 07 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 07 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 06 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 05 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 04 $91 +$14 +15%
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 30 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 30 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 29 $40 +$4 +11%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $75 +$38 +50%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 03 $60 +$15 +26%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 15 $100 −$41 -41%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $160 before 2026?? Dec 09 $81 −$57 -70%
Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8? Dec 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 08 $199 +$11 +6%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026?? Dec 04 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 22¢ $5 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 69¢ $13 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 21d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes $8 80d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 86d
Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 109d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 109d
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) BUY 1. FSV Mainz 05 68¢ $10 109d
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $10 109d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 20¢ $6 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up $1 123d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.10 · official $55.13 · 312 history records