Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16f5…c651 sports 310 markets active 8h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$45 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%160W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$132
14 days+$132
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$119
other 31% +$32
crypto 1% −$10
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +10.9% +0.4% 71% 45% -1.2%
≤30d 34 +6.7% -3.5% 68% 44% -1.4%
≤90d 309 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 48% -11.8%
all 309 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 48% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 48% -11.8%
10% -19.9% 46% -20.3%
15% -27.7% 43% -28.0%
20% -34.7% 38% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses160 / 149
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage88d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 87¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+235%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$5 -42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +23%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$4 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +113%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$1 -21%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $17 −$9 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $438 +$40 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$84 +163%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$6 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $73 +$4 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $19 +$16 +84%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$21 +94%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$24 +287%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$8 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $42 +$5 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$1 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $465 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $1 +$1 +88%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-6.5) Apr 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas Jayhawks vs. BYU Cougars (W) Mar 31 $48 −$48 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5 Mar 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Mar 30 $60 −$23 -38%
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) Mar 30 $10 −$3 -26%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5) Mar 30 $4 +$4 +96%
Kings vs. Nets Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-2.5) Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 216.5 Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $8 −$3 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $11 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $6 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $5 8h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $10 8h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $4 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $9 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 12h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 46¢ $4 16h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $3 17h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $3 17h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $7 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $2 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 49¢ $5 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 49¢ $2 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $3 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $7 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.32 · official $4.32 (match) · 1650 history records