Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16f6…7296 crypto 254 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-4%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%159W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day135.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$189
sports 4% +$46
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -23.8% -31.0% 54% 51% -27.8%
≤30d 254 -5.2% -14.3% 63% 54% -14.3%
≤90d 254 -5.2% -14.3% 63% 54% -14.3%
all 254 -5.2% -14.3% 63% 54% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 54% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 44% -22.5%
15% -30.0% 31% -30.0%
20% -36.8% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses159 / 95
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day135.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 629 history records