Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
17 0x1703…dc11 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$722 (-35%) realized −$722 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$488
world 25% +$2
other 17% +$8
crypto 5% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.3% -21.6% 83% 17% -29.8%
≤30d 6 -13.3% -21.6% 83% 17% -29.8%
≤90d 6 -13.3% -21.6% 83% 17% -29.8%
all 6 -13.3% -21.6% 83% 17% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 17% -29.8%
10% -29.1% 0% -36.5%
15% -35.9% 0% -42.7%
20% -42.2% 0% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$503 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$722
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $355 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $520 +$2 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $503 −$503 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$11 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $400 +$4 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $202 +$11 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $355 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL No 36¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 39¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL No 82¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 82¢ $10 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $400 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $214 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $503 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records