Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
17 0x1703…6112 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$44
14 days+$28
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$3
sports 2% −$5
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +25.0% +13.1% 75% 75% +22.4%
≤30d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 46% -14.5%
≤90d 43 -9.1% -17.8% 42% 40% -9.7%
all 43 -9.1% -17.8% 42% 40% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 40% -9.7%
10% -25.6% 37% -18.4%
15% -32.8% 35% -26.3%
20% -39.4% 28% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage65d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 +$4 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$40 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $22 +$5 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $3 $0 -4%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $17 +$10 +57%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $17 +$10 +57%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $45 −$18 -39%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 $0 -5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $24 +$18 +73%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? Apr 30 $10 $0 -3%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 27 $5 $0 -6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 +$6 +57%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $27 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $17 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 25d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 36d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 37d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $14 37d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 39d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 39d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $22 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.93 · official $10.93 (match) · 84 history records