Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

17 0x1707…46a4 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,616 (+23%) realized +$2,616 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%10W / 13L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$441per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$103est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$305

7 days+$305

14 days+$305

30 days+$285

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+22.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+151.5%	+127.6%	100%	100%	+127.6%
≤30d	2	+25.8%	+13.8%	50%	50%	+107.0%
≤90d	22	+33.1%	+20.4%	41%	41%	+22.4%
all	23	+35.8%	+22.9%	43%	43%	+25.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.9%	43%	+25.5%
10%	+11.1%	43%	+13.5%
15%	+0.4%	43%	+2.5%
20%	-9.4%	43%	-7.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$694) neutral

Persistence

early +29% → late +42% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$759 vs −$372 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$2,616

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses10 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$103

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 26

History coverage99d

Avg bet$441

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$202	+$305	+152%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 02	$21	−$20	-96%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$199	−$18	-9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$1,907	−$1,668	-88%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC?	May 30	$82	−$80	-97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC?	May 30	$34	−$33	-97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	May 10	$330	−$323	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$716	+$913	+128%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	May 06	$116	+$89	+77%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	Apr 29	$540	−$529	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Apr 28	$1,018	+$1,546	+152%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	Apr 28	$205	−$200	-98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	Apr 28	$773	−$773	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	Apr 19	$800	+$479	+60%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Apr 15	$152	+$116	+76%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09?	Apr 15	$240	−$240	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Apr 15	$200	−$200	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?	Apr 15	$730	−$730	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Apr 15	$29	−$29	-100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	Apr 14	$694	+$1,795	+259%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?	Apr 14	$500	+$640	+128%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	Apr 08	$621	+$1,221	+197%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Mar 22	$500	+$485	+97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	SELL Paraguay	100¢	$507	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	39¢	$202	1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Algeria vs. Aust	BUY	8¢	$109	2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. P	BUY	12¢	$200	2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq:	BUY	22¢	$558	3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	27d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	46¢	$181	30d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	49¢	$199	30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	SELL Yes	7¢	$196	30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	26¢	$204	30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	25¢	$511	30d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC?	BUY Yes	8¢	$82	30d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC?	BUY Yes	3¢	$34	30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	39¢	$1,191	30d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	22¢	$330	50d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	89¢	$141	54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	84¢	$176	54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	79¢	$221	54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	70¢	$262	54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	61¢	$128	54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	54¢	$302	54d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	SELL Paris Saint-Germain FC	20¢	$100	54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	49¢	$367	54d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	SELL Paris Saint-Germain FC	21¢	$105	54d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC	11¢	$116	54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	23¢	$716	54d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	BUY Yes	31¢	$540	61d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC	20¢	$205	62d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	BUY Yes	39¢	$1,018	62d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	BUY Manchester City FC	20¢	$150	71d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records