Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1708…c6ab crypto 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$884 (-13%) realized −$1,089 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%76W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$51
14 days−$33
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,115
other 3% +$50
sports 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +45.8% +31.9% 80% 80% +28.2%
≤30d 49 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 47% -15.6%
≤90d 161 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 47% -24.2%
all 161 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 47% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 47% -24.2%
10% -24.5% 45% -31.5%
15% -31.8% 42% -38.1%
20% -38.4% 40% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$36 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$1,089
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses76 / 85
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage57d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $100 $180 +$80 (+80%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $40 $8 −$32 (-81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $134 −$30 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $212 −$41 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $22 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 28 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 27 $18 +$16 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 27 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $36 +$29 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 27 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $22 −$19 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3AM ET May 27 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 27 $53 −$32 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 27 $16 +$15 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 27 $12 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 27 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $13 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 27 $6 −$5 -74%
Will Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-15? May 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will FC Argeș Pitești win on 2026-05-15? May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 18 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw? May 16 $16 +$48 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.39 · official $187.39 (match) · 454 history records