Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x170c…5fa3
other · 43 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$13 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage469d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 0 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $75 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 +$3 +11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $16 $0 +1%
Judge Boasberg impeached before June? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Man City qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League? May 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $11 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $2 $0 +18%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $4 $0 +2%
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Mar 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will "The Last Ranger" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 25-Mar 3? Mar 02 $17 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? Mar 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Timothée Chalamet bring his mom to the Oscars? Mar 02 $15 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$6
other 23% +$4
sports 14% +$2
politics 12% +$1
culture 6% +$2
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% −$3
weather 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $15 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $9 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $3 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $11 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $9 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $29 29h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $32 34h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $26 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $4 35h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 5d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 352d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 352d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 98¢ $16 352d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 71% 29% -6.8%
≤30d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 71% 29% -6.8%
≤90d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 71% 29% -6.8%
all 43 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 16% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 16% -7.8%
10% -15.0% 2% -16.6%
15% -23.3% 2% -24.7%
20% -30.8% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records