Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:15:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1711…0613 crypto 124 markets active 2d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-9%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%61W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$47
other 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -7.2% -16.0% 59% 47% -19.6%
≤30d 124 -15.7% -23.7% 49% 39% -19.5%
≤90d 124 -15.7% -23.7% 49% 39% -19.5%
all 124 -15.7% -23.7% 49% 39% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 39% -19.5%
10% -31.0% 37% -27.2%
15% -37.7% 32% -34.2%
20% -43.8% 31% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses61 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records