Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1712…385d world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+4%) realized +$47 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$3
other 19% +$13
sports 15% +$9
crypto 5% −$10
politics 2% +$31
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.5%
all 36 +17.5% +6.3% 47% 8% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 8% -5.6%
10% -3.8% 8% -14.6%
15% -13.1% 8% -22.9%
20% -21.7% 8% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage490d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 93¢ 84¢ $41 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $8 −$2 -21%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $3 +$11 +420%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $34 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $33 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $43 −$8 -19%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5? Mar 11 $19 +$31 +163%
Oklahoma State vs. UCF Mar 05 $19 $0 +0%
Stonehill vs. Wagner Mar 05 $9 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $41 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $41 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $31 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $30 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $44 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $29 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $43 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $44 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $43 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $43 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $44 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $44 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $28 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.74 · official $36.74 (match) · 124 history records