Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
17 0x1715…dbe9 other 295 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,255 (+13%) realized +$1,217 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%129W / 139L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$429
7 days−$74
14 days+$504
30 days+$849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$722
sports 21% +$647
politics 1% −$11
world 1% −$66
crypto 0% +$16
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -8.1% -16.8% 45% 42% -12.0%
≤30d 51 +56.4% +41.5% 65% 59% +9.8%
≤90d 181 -31.8% -38.3% 29% 25% -18.6%
all 268 +20.7% +9.2% 48% 44% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 44% +3.1%
10% -1.2% 43% -6.7%
15% -10.8% 40% -15.7%
20% -19.5% 38% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$22 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized+$1,217
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses129 / 139
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions14
Markets (closed)268 / 295
History coverage250d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $63 $91 +$28 (+44%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 25¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+127%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 47¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 24¢ 24¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-30%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ 8¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $143 +$133 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $45 +$41 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 +$49 +146%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $86 −$86 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Anthony Elanga score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$31 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $697 +$67 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$16 +135%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $11 −$8 -75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $85 +$45 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $602 +$72 +12%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $13 +$24 +180%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$40 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$12 +76%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$77 +504%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$36 +140%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $400 +$91 +23%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $23 +$27 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$38 +96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$22 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$66 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$36 +140%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +8%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $8 +$101 +1233%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $21 +$26 +122%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $15 +$26 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $15 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026 BUY 45¢ $20 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 22h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 22h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 19¢ $15 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $20 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY 6¢ $15 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $30 22h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 26¢ $20 22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06- BUY 20¢ $17 23h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $77 33h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $86 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 38h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Spre BUY 9¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $697 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $20 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY 20¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $34 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 7¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $19 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 42¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.46 · official $482.76 · 734 history records