Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1718…b4bf other 159 markets active 4d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$166 (-17%) realized −$169 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%58W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$63
14 days−$115
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$49
other 37% −$99
finance 5% −$24
politics 4% −$7
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -11.1% -19.5% 54% 47% -18.2%
≤30d 158 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 29% -27.0%
≤90d 158 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 29% -27.0%
all 158 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 29% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 29% -27.0%
10% -35.6% 25% -34.0%
15% -41.8% 21% -40.3%
20% -47.5% 15% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses58 / 100
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage23d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 80¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +75%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -14%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $5 +$5 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$7 +45%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $16 +$13 +82%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 +$4 +69%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +72%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +92%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY aimclub 99¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Metizport 99¢ $15 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 87¢ $5 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $5 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $5 4d
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 66¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $12 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 74¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 4d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 4d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 4d
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 81¢ $5 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 4d
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 68¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $5 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $5 5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.33 · official $13.33 (match) · 399 history records