Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1718…3cc5 crypto 596 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%389W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day38.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$26
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 -1.0% -10.5% 66% 66% -12.9%
≤30d 596 -1.6% -10.9% 65% 65% -11.6%
≤90d 596 -1.6% -10.9% 65% 65% -11.6%
all 596 -1.6% -10.9% 65% 65% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 65% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 59% -20.1%
15% -27.2% 41% -27.8%
20% -34.4% 22% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses389 / 207
Open positions0
Markets (closed)596 / 596
History coverage17d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day38.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 596 Trades
no open positions (177 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1079 history records