Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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17 0x1719…ec68 sports 463 markets active 8h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$876 (-6%) realized −$926 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%248W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day94.7pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$307
7 days+$643
14 days+$74
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$260
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +20.7% +9.2% 65% 63% +6.7%
≤30d 399 +0.3% -9.3% 54% 54% -8.0%
≤90d 454 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 53% -8.3%
all 454 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 53% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 53% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 51% -17.0%
15% -26.8% 47% -25.1%
20% -34.0% 32% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$28 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$926
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses248 / 206
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions11
Markets (closed)454 / 463
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day94.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Cleveland Guardians 23¢ 48¢ $40 $83 +$43 (+107%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ 64¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 73¢ 61¢ $50 $41 −$8 (-16%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 69¢ 72¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+4%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 35¢ 46¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+33%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ 69¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+9%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 37¢ 48¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 37¢ 26¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-30%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 62¢ 72¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$19 +48%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$3 +62%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$14 +44%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$8 +42%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$45 +124%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$35 -85%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$22 +52%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$2 +65%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 17 $42 +$16 +40%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $38 +$5 +13%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$29 +63%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 −$21 -49%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 +$79 +152%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$2 +36%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $32 +$12 +40%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 +$53 +158%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 +$10 +60%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 16 $17 +$8 +48%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 +$13 +29%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 −$16 -47%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 +$18 +54%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 +$43 +124%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $42 +$44 +106%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 +$66 +152%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $46 +$20 +42%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 +$9 +24%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 +$28 +80%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $44 +$6 +13%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 +$22 +50%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $42 +$6 +16%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 14 $43 +$16 +39%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $37 +$16 +42%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $42 +$60 +146%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $47 +$55 +119%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $28 −$16 -57%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 −$22 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $4 8h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $5 8h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $4 8h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $3 8h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $6 8h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $7 8h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $3 8h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $3 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $3 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $4 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $3 8h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 70¢ $4 8h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 67¢ $3 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $4 8h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 70¢ $4 8h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 67¢ $3 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $4 8h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 70¢ $6 8h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 67¢ $7 8h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 62¢ $5 8h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 67¢ $6 8h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 62¢ $5 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $4 8h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 67¢ $5 8h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 62¢ $5 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $4 8h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 67¢ $4 8h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 62¢ $5 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $4 8h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 67¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.83 · official $298.83 (match) · 3500 history records