Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x171b…9c6f
crypto · 680 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$454 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$220 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$25
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses408 / 271
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)679 / 680
History coverage40d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 1 History 679 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$6
14 days+$88
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $13 +$5 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $70 −$19 -28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $39 −$10 -25%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $59 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $132 +$6 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Martha Matoula vs Anna Dvorackova Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
ITF Merzig: Sonja Zhenikhova vs Leonie Schuknecht Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $61 −$6 -10%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $7 +$3 +39%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $27 +$13 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$3 -67%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $19 +$11 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$10 +211%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $35 +$18 +52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Lyon: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Dali Blanch Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Alex Molcan vs. Petr Brunclik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Rehberg vs Travaglia Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Rehberg vs. Travaglia: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $34 −$2 -5%
Rehberg vs. Travaglia: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $8 $0 -3%
Tiffon vs. Blanch: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $14 $0 -2%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 07 $9 $0 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Tiffon vs Blanch Jun 07 $6 $0 -2%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
Broady vs. Vasilev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Tiffon vs. Blanch: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Rehberg vs. Travaglia: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $2 $0 -2%
Rehberg vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Rehberg vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $45 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% +$8
sports 33% +$174
other 13% +$56
finance 4% −$18
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 55m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 59m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -1.1% -10.5% 34% 21% -8.8%
≤30d 275 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 42% -7.9%
≤90d 679 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 49% -5.9%
all 679 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 49% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 49% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 40% -14.9%
15% -24.9% 30% -23.1%
20% -32.3% 21% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.75 · official $24.75 (match) · 3500 history records