Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x171e…0728 crypto 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,768 (-7%) realized −$2,768 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%239W / 183L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$367
7 days−$909
14 days−$1,221
30 days−$2,924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,493
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -32.0% -38.5% 56% 23% -17.9%
≤30d 294 -22.1% -29.5% 51% 39% -19.5%
≤90d 422 -11.2% -19.7% 57% 47% -17.5%
all 422 -11.2% -19.7% 57% 47% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 47% -17.5%
10% -27.4% 45% -25.4%
15% -34.4% 43% -32.6%
20% -40.8% 34% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$82 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,768
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses239 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)422 / 422
History coverage57d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 422 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$65 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$56 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $211 +$14 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $307 +$207 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $271 +$12 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $180 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,049 +$230 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $250 −$240 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $316 −$308 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $702 +$23 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$11 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $161 +$12 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $171 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$96 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$96 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$12 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $67 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $67 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $67 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $67 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $12 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $19 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1275 history records