Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

17 0x171e…21ea crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$19 (+73%) realized +$19 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip

Net edge+61%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+67.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+85.1%	+67.4%	100%	100%	+75.4%
≤30d	5	+85.1%	+67.4%	100%	100%	+75.4%
≤90d	5	+85.1%	+67.4%	100%	100%	+75.4%
all	5	+85.1%	+67.4%	100%	100%	+75.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+67.4%	100%	+75.4%
10%	+51.4%	100%	+58.6%
15%	+36.8%	80%	+43.3%
20%	+23.4%	80%	+29.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +94% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +85% · $-wt +94% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$19

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 15	$6	+$5	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 15	$6	+$6	+105%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$12	+$11	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 14	$1	$0	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+101%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$6	5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	51¢	$12	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$1	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$1	36h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records