Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1722…8867 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$6
other 18% +$1
crypto 7% −$5
finance 5% $0
politics 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.3% -2.9% 67% 33% -3.6%
≤30d 13 +6.7% -3.5% 46% 23% -8.1%
≤90d 13 +6.7% -3.5% 46% 23% -8.1%
all 32 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 12% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 12% -9.0%
10% -15.7% 3% -17.7%
15% -23.9% 3% -25.6%
20% -31.3% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage404d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $31 +$7 +21%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 −$2 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $68 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -3%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 19 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 18 $5 $0 -9%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $41 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $41 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 57¢ $38 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $8 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $24 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $33 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $31 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $33 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $13 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $5 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $7 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $9 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records