Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1726…e66f sports 1691 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1662W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$95
weather 17% +$14
other 17% −$36
finance 2% +$2
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 201 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1370 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
all 1689 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1662 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1689 / 1691
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - Asia P Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $17 16h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $33 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 22h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 41h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 47h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 100¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $42 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $8 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY TYLOO 100¢ $50 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 3500 history records