Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
17 0x1728…1224 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (293 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$4,125 (+18%) realized +$4,125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate74%42W / 15L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day293.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,134
sports 0% +$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (293 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +22.8% +11.1% 74% 68% +17.8%
≤30d 57 +22.8% +11.1% 74% 68% +17.8%
≤90d 57 +22.8% +11.1% 74% 68% +17.8%
all 57 +22.8% +11.1% 74% 68% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover293.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.1% 68% +17.8%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 65% +6.5%
15% -9.3% 58% -3.8%
20% -18.2% 40% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$574) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$128 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,367
Realized+$4,125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses42 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage1d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day293.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 64¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $823 +$564 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $921 +$481 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $569 +$184 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $1,437 +$821 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $262 +$652 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $234 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $359 −$350 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $925 +$555 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $574 −$574 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $893 +$492 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $662 +$236 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $551 +$201 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $1,028 −$77 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $299 +$229 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $1,008 +$121 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $220 −$43 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $604 +$61 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $1,131 +$477 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $119 +$28 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $309 +$226 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $2,214 −$200 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $308 +$178 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $1,500 +$560 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $421 +$286 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $1,041 +$430 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $758 +$153 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $710 +$177 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $504 +$207 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $261 +$124 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $295 +$85 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $181 +$108 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $176 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$53 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $123 +$51 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$63 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $62 +$28 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $923 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,367.33 · official $1,367.28 (match) · 337 history records