Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x172f…1b8b crypto 784 markets active 3d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-2%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate71%553W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$141
14 days−$836
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -4.6% -13.7% 63% 63% -13.8%
≤30d 783 -3.7% -12.9% 70% 70% -12.9%
≤90d 784 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 70% -12.9%
all 784 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 70% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 70% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 54% -21.2%
15% -28.8% 26% -28.8%
20% -35.8% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses553 / 231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)784 / 784
History coverage34d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 784 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1600 history records