Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1730…52ed world 48 markets active 23h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
politics 21% $0
other 14% $0
tech 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 12% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 7% -9.5%
all 46 -0.0% -9.6% 26% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage279d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 70¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $42 +$2 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 −$2 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $19 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or higher on Sep Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 15 $27 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 10 $33 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12? Sep 09 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $16 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $16 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $40 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $34 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $5 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $38 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $5 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $2 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $7 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $30 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $47 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $49 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $48 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.18 (match) · 154 history records