Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1733…9411 world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,486 (+3%) realized +$912 · open +$574
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%38W / 28L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$11,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$2,966
14 days+$3,277
30 days+$3,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1,166
politics 24% +$96
tech 9% +$461
other 4% +$29
finance 2% +$170
sports 1% −$284
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.4% +1.7% 60% 40% +7.5%
≤30d 25 +10.9% +0.3% 68% 52% +3.5%
≤90d 53 -11.3% -19.7% 58% 43% -4.9%
all 66 -12.6% -21.0% 58% 42% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 42% -6.5%
10% -28.5% 30% -15.4%
15% -35.4% 17% -23.6%
20% -41.8% 9% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$156 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$11,578
Realized+$912
Unrealized+$574
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses38 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions22
Markets (closed)66 / 88
History coverage133d
Avg bet$505
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 67¢ 76¢ $2,256 $2,588 +$332 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 74¢ $1,460 $1,490 +$30 (+2%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $1,183 $1,431 +$248 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,274 $1,281 +$7 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 55¢ 63¢ $720 $825 +$105 (+15%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $626 $670 +$44 (+7%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 71¢ 89¢ $413 $516 +$103 (+25%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $407 $430 +$23 (+6%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $335 $400 +$65 (+19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 70¢ 76¢ $342 $374 +$32 (+9%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $303 $268 −$35 (-12%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $192 $210 +$18 (+9%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 71¢ 87¢ $147 $180 +$33 (+23%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 36¢ $400 $180 −$220 (-55%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 51¢ 46¢ $192 $172 −$20 (-10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 32¢ 30¢ $160 $147 −$12 (-8%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $159 $145 −$14 (-9%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 88¢ 97¢ $123 $135 +$13 (+11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 80¢ 95¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+19%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $148 $27 −$121 (-82%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $82 $24 −$58 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 20 $1,543 +$104 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,732 −$10 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,776 +$1,221 +32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $496 −$46 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $228 −$228 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $494 +$836 +169%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4,874 +$356 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,287 +$834 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $97 +$53 +55%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $212 −$154 -73%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $574 +$135 +24%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $123 +$66 +54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $842 +$213 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $929 +$406 +44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $441 +$109 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,791 −$113 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $616 +$136 +22%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $410 +$60 +15%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,069 −$286 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "Drone" during WHCA Dinner events? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Clavicular arrested again by April 30? Jun 03 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 Jun 03 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by April 30? Jun 03 $13 +$17 +133%
Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 27 $33 −$31 -95%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 27 $266 +$14 +5%
Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 27 $314 +$27 +8%
Will Donald Trump be the first substitute White House Press Secretary? Apr 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 26 $600 +$10 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 24 $539 −$539 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +15%
Will Trump say "Paper tiger" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 24 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 24 $22 +$8 +36%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 24 $109 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? (April 19) Apr 24 $78 +$131 +167%
Will Trump say "Drug" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 18 $25 +$7 +30%
Will Trump say "Patriot" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 14 $256 −$256 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 14 $248 +$38 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 14 $390 −$390 -100%
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? Apr 07 $346 −$10 -3%
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $146 +$54 +37%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 02 $222 +$87 +39%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Apr 01 $215 −$215 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $109 +$19 +18%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 01 $266 +$84 +32%
Will Trump say "World Cup" or "Olympics" 4+ times during Inter Miami e Mar 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 30¢ $149 49m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $202 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $300 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $206 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $169 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $58 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $182 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 98¢ $1,647 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 49¢ $64 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $0 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 73¢ $57 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $130 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,577.83 · official $11,577.97 (match) · 355 history records