Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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17 0x1733…dc80 sports 964 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,216 (-4%) realized −$11,299 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%359W / 600L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$2,995est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days−$450
14 days−$450
30 days−$755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$6,808
crypto 12% −$930
other 3% −$1,375
finance 3% −$3,035
world 1% +$361
economics 0% −$121
tech 0% −$184
politics 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -18.3% -26.1% 25% 25% -19.6%
≤30d 68 -20.1% -27.8% 28% 28% -18.9%
≤90d 612 -16.3% -24.3% 34% 32% -21.9%
all 959 -5.2% -14.2% 37% 35% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 35% -13.8%
10% -22.4% 33% -22.1%
15% -29.9% 30% -29.6%
20% -36.8% 27% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$304 vs −$202 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized−$11,299
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses359 / 600
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,995
Open positions4
Markets (closed)959 / 964
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$320
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 959 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 32¢ 42¢ $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+47%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $304 −$14 -5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $172 −$77 -45%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $162 +$129 +79%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$48 -47%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $111 −$38 -35%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $102 +$93 +92%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $51 +$106 +208%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$27 -27%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $255 −$200 -78%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$22 -22%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$99 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$74 +36%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 +$22 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$57 -56%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $163 +$209 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $173 −$111 -64%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$94 +307%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$28 -54%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 +$195 +947%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $112 +$68 +60%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $51 −$31 -61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$69 -67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $194 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 57¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 43¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 58¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $91 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $291 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $54 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 3h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $60 3h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 3h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $195 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $61 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 31h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.45 · official $461.58 · 3500 history records