Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1734…2e92 sports 330 markets active 2h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%33W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$1
other 27% −$9
politics 26% −$14
crypto 4% −$4
economics 3% $0
world 3% −$2
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 32 -0.9% -10.3% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 57 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
all 330 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses33 / 297
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)330 / 330
History coverage663d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 330 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $133 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $190 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 07 $11 $0 -3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $42 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 02 $43 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $124 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $208 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $390 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $91 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $89 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $105 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 25 $57 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $323 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $55 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 22 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $28 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 20 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $41 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $41 5h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $60 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $61 13d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL No 91¢ $11 20d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY No 93¢ $11 21d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 21d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $53 21d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $47 21d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $9 21d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 21d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $11 21d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 95¢ $55 21d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 95¢ $56 22d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $49 22d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $49 22d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 93¢ $54 22d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 94¢ $54 22d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 22d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 22d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $44 22d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $44 22d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $53 22d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $53 23d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $68 23d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $68 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 23d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $53 23d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $53 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1302 history records