Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1735…0319
weather · 299 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$391 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$381 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$381
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses288 / 408
Open positions15
Markets (closed)696 / 299
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day487.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 15 History 696 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$442
7 days−$386
14 days−$381
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 28? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+233%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 2? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+456%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 31? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+455%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+194%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 31? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+669%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+197%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 27? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1009%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+354%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+900%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 30? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+174%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+163%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 23? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+257%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 28? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +2116%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +560%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 2? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +2467%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 31? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +2360%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 31? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +532%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 +669%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 27? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +6436%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 30? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +2632%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 23? Jun 12 $0 $0 -232%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +8457%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 3? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +3475%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 20? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 18? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 18? Jun 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 27? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 14? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 19? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 27? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 16? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 23? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 1? Jun 12 $0 +$10 +283124%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 30? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +2448%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 16? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C on April 11? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or higher on April 6? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 2 Jun 12 $0 $0 +3920%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 6? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 23? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -121%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 8? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 36¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+116.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 687 +140.9% +117.9% 41% 38% -25.2%
≤30d 696 +138.9% +116.1% 41% 38% -24.8%
≤90d 696 +138.9% +116.1% 41% 38% -24.8%
all 696 +138.9% +116.1% 41% 38% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover487.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +116.1% 38% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here +95.4% 34% -32.0%
15% +76.6% 27% -38.6%
20% +59.2% 24% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.88 · official $3.24 · 3500 history records