Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1736…ffca sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$899 (-11%) realized −$802 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,052
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 45% -20.8%
≤30d 20 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 45% -20.8%
≤90d 20 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 45% -20.8%
all 20 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 45% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 45% -20.8%
10% -22.9% 45% -28.4%
15% -30.4% 45% -35.3%
20% -37.2% 45% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$328 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$802
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 55¢ 39¢ $330 $233 −$97 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $472 −$465 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 24 $242 +$135 +56%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $339 −$339 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $357 −$18 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $784 −$427 -54%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $608 −$600 -99%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $506 +$314 +62%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $406 −$400 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $356 −$350 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $305 +$347 +114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $508 +$491 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $507 +$419 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $496 −$213 -43%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 Jun 21 $302 +$212 +70%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 21 $305 +$303 +100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 21 $270 −$265 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $94 +$94 +101%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $325 +$341 +105%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $337 −$333 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 55¢ $335 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $472 9h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants SELL Lotte Giants 100¢ $377 9h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 63¢ $242 12h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $339 45h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 47¢ $339 45h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $357 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 25¢ $356 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $784 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $608 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia SELL Valencia 100¢ $820 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 61¢ $506 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $406 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $356 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $651 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 36¢ $283 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 3d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 SELL Over 100¢ $513 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $496 3d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 58¢ $302 3d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos SELL SSG Landers 100¢ $608 3d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY SSG Landers 49¢ $305 3d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY Doosan Bears 42¢ $270 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $188 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $94 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $666 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.34 · official $189.50 · 36 history records