Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
17 0x1736…688c crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$566 (-4%) realized −$550 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%131W / 74L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$141
14 days+$182
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$9
other 25% +$49
world 11% −$738
sports 1% −$51
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 45% -3.5%
≤30d 89 -9.8% -18.4% 63% 43% -5.5%
≤90d 190 +1.8% -7.9% 64% 43% -9.5%
all 205 +3.5% -6.3% 64% 43% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 43% -15.7%
10% -15.3% 30% -23.8%
15% -23.5% 21% -31.1%
20% -31.0% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$46 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$550
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses131 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)205 / 212
History coverage124d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 88¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-16%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $61 +$5 +8%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $106 +$9 +9%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $119 +$41 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$6 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $202 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $106 +$22 +21%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 +$13 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$19 +34%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +323%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $56 +$17 +30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $262 +$8 +3%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$38 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$12 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $76 +$5 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $241 +$58 +24%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$19 -74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $42 +$51 +121%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $172 +$20 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $267 +$9 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$8 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $807 +$44 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $61 −$54 -88%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $87 +$8 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $62 +$30 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 94¢ $45 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $101 25h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $57 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 78¢ $51 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $35 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $101 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $101 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.33 · official $269.33 (match) · 871 history records