Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x173a…eb85 weather 710 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 230d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,223 (-3%) realized −$6,223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate28%202W / 508L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$366
14 days−$607
30 days−$907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$972
economics 16% −$428
other 15% −$2,144
world 12% −$467
sports 12% −$1,049
weather 3% +$215
tech 3% −$489
culture 1% −$43
finance 1% −$74
crypto 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -5.8% -14.7% 3% 3% -15.1%
≤30d 82 -7.2% -16.0% 1% 1% -15.2%
≤90d 232 -2.1% -11.4% 13% 10% -12.9%
all 710 -8.2% -17.0% 28% 19% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 19% -12.2%
10% -24.9% 13% -20.6%
15% -32.2% 8% -28.3%
20% -38.8% 6% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses202 / 508
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)710 / 710
History coverage231d ⚠
Avg bet$260
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 710 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $62 −$3 -4%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 22 $124 −$10 -8%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $40 −$1 -3%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $79 −$2 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 21 $142 −$6 -4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 21 $173 −$4 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 21 $32 −$3 -9%
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 21 $65 −$19 -29%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $43 −$7 -15%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 19 $28 −$5 -18%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $194 −$17 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $188 −$8 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $780 −$11 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $935 −$18 -2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 18 $885 −$18 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 17 $67 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 17 $89 −$2 -2%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $61 −$3 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $588 −$13 -2%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 17 $208 −$4 -2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 17 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$7 -22%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $613 −$182 -30%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 16 $59 −$2 -3%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $57 −$6 -10%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $165 −$10 -6%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 15 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $171 −$6 -4%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $222 −$9 -4%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 14 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $161 −$8 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $619 −$27 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 12 $35 −$2 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $1,263 −$56 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 11 $53 −$3 -6%
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 09 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $84 −$30 -35%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 09 $81 −$4 -5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 09 $245 −$50 -20%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 09 $110 −$45 -41%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 08 $377 −$30 -8%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $62 −$35 -57%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $46 −$8 -18%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 07 $26 −$2 -7%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 07 $89 −$2 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $290 −$10 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $59 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $62 1h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 56¢ $47 2h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $67 2h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $124 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 30¢ $38 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 31¢ $9 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 31¢ $31 4h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $77 11h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $79 11h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 61¢ $135 14h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 63¢ $142 14h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $169 14h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $173 14h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 15¢ $29 16h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 16¢ $9 16h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 16¢ $23 16h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 22h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 22h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 22h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 36¢ $32 37h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 37h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 37h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 44h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $49 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 SELL No 24¢ $23 2d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY No 28¢ $28 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 35¢ $76 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records