Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x173a…584c
sports · 951 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$114 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$219 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$173
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses499 / 428
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions24
Markets (closed)927 / 951
History coverage24d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day72.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 24 History 927 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$45
14 days−$99
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 61¢ 100¢ $11 $19 +$7 (+63%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Gen.G 64¢ 100¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+56%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Bilibili Gaming 62¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+61%)
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain - Map 1 Winner Clutchain 69¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Ashlyn Krueger 71¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+40%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Raphael Collignon 63¢ 82¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ 91¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Galions 69¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 81¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Galions 70¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 81¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 79¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Curaçao 71¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Leo Team 78¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 69¢ 62¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 72¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $49 −$6 -13%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $6 +$1 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $6 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$6 +53%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$12 -40%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$3 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $6 +$2 +31%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +52%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$4 +34%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$1 -9%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$130
crypto 14% −$43
other 7% −$27
world 3% +$2
weather 2% −$4
politics 1% +$8
finance 1% −$10
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 77¢ $1 5m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 77¢ $4 5m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY Leo Team 78¢ $6 7m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 80¢ $6 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $0 15m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 65¢ $6 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $6 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $2 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $3 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $1 55m
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 63¢ $6 57m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro BUY Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ $6 1h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Ashlyn Krueger 71¢ $6 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $6 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $6 2h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $6 2h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 61¢ $6 2h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 52¢ $6 2h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 55¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $6 2h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 69¢ $6 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $6 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 55¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 69¢ $6 3h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 70¢ $6 3h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 25¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain - Map 1 Winner BUY Clutchain 69¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 -3.1% -12.3% 63% 59% -11.7%
≤30d 927 -3.6% -12.7% 54% 50% -14.0%
≤90d 927 -3.6% -12.7% 54% 50% -14.0%
all 927 -3.6% -12.7% 54% 50% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 50% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 43% -22.2%
15% -28.7% 28% -29.8%
20% -35.7% 18% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.26 · official $172.33 (match) · 3500 history records