Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
17 0x173c…52c8 sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 671d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$514 (+10%) realized +$510 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%49W / 37L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$348
7 days−$645
14 days−$36
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$414
sports 26% +$85
crypto 2% +$57
politics 2% $0
economics 2% −$65
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.7% -43.6% 40% 40% -48.1%
≤30d 11 +13.0% +2.3% 45% 45% -10.8%
≤90d 17 +28.4% +16.1% 53% 53% -7.6%
all 86 +27.5% +15.4% 57% 56% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.4% 56% -0.1%
10% +4.3% 53% -9.7%
15% -5.7% 48% -18.4%
20% -15.0% 44% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$62 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

671d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$510
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses49 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage671d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $173 $177 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $350 −$348 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $287 −$281 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $292 +$159 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $266 +$152 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $329 −$326 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $574 +$98 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $256 +$994 +388%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $390 −$388 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 10 $31 +$69 +226%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina Kalinina May 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 10 $18 +$23 +129%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik Apr 16 $19 +$22 +114%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 09 $19 +$30 +158%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Apr 05 $37 +$51 +138%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 26 $50 +$116 +233%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Mar 12 $49 +$50 +104%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Mar 07 $62 +$93 +150%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 26 $39 +$100 +257%
Murray State Racers vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Feb 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 25 $98 −$49 -50%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 25 $53 +$87 +163%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jan 07 $43 +$90 +212%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 14 $24 +$58 +245%
Giants vs. Patriots Dec 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 27 $40 +$92 +233%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Clippers vs. Suns Nov 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 06 $18 +$37 +203%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota Oct 27 $19 +$43 +223%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 17 $14 +$12 +85%
Panthers vs. Flyers Oct 17 $19 +$26 +138%
Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? Sep 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 29 $16 +$18 +108%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? Sep 23 $18 +$6 +37%
Colorado vs. Houston Sep 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Brewers vs. Pirates Sep 05 $18 −$18 -100%
TCU vs. North Carolina Sep 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Benfica win on 2025-08-27? Sep 01 $11 +$7 +67%
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Aug 27 $14 +$10 +72%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 19 $12 +$10 +79%
Guardians vs. Mets Aug 12 $12 +$18 +156%
Orioles vs. Guardians Aug 06 $16 +$11 +64%
Phillies vs. Yankees Jul 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $175 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $350 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $287 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $292 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $266 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $329 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $574 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $96 9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $390 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $256 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $75 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 25d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Panna Udvardy 31¢ $11 33d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 45d
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $18 69d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 46¢ $19 76d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 79d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $37 90d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 95d
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs BUY Ducks 49¢ $71 103d
Knicks vs. Nuggets BUY Knicks 49¢ $49 109d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? BUY No 40¢ $62 117d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? BUY No 28¢ $39 127d
Murray State Racers vs. Southern Illinois Salukis BUY Southern Illinois Salukis 47¢ $64 137d
Rockets vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 34¢ $26 142d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $49 150d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $98 152d
Rockets vs. Pistons BUY Rockets 38¢ $53 152d
Raptors vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 46¢ $62 167d
Vikings vs. Cowboys BUY Vikings 32¢ $43 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.12 · official $177.12 (match) · 165 history records