Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x173e…6119 politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$17
politics 27% $0
other 12% −$1
crypto 11% +$2
sports 8% −$1
economics 8% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -3.6% -12.7% 22% 0% -16.4%
≤90d 9 -3.6% -12.7% 22% 0% -16.4%
all 35 +1.9% -7.8% 34% 3% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -11.6%
10% -16.6% 3% -20.1%
15% -24.6% 3% -27.8%
20% -32.0% 3% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage270d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $9 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $16 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $51 −$17 -33%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 21 $2 +$2 +110%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $20 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 01 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $4 $0 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 28 $23 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $2 $0 +10%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $13 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $21 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL Yes 3¢ $1 242d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL Yes 2¢ $0 243d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL Yes 3¢ $0 245d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL Yes 3¢ $0 245d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL Yes 3¢ $1 245d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL Yes 3¢ $0 245d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL Yes 1¢ $0 250d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL Yes 1¢ $0 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records