Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1742…b85c crypto 476 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%273W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.2% +8.7% 100% 33% +8.8%
≤30d 8 +12.1% +1.5% 75% 50% +1.3%
≤90d 47 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 38% -5.9%
all 476 -4.0% -13.1% 57% 48% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 48% -8.2%
10% -21.5% 41% -17.0%
15% -29.0% 34% -25.0%
20% -36.0% 28% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses273 / 203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)476 / 476
History coverage134d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 476 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 -21%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$1 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 30 $2 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 28 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 27 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 25 $2 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 24 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 22 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$2 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 16 $12 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 49d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 62d
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 62d
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 62d
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 62d
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1022 history records