Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1743…3d6f sports 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$64 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$363
14 days+$151
30 days+$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,149
other 17% −$87
politics 15% +$1,252
crypto 4% −$35
world 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -13.8% -22.0% 40% 40% -23.0%
≤30d 78 -6.7% -15.5% 45% 45% -2.6%
≤90d 83 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 43% -17.6%
all 89 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 44% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 44% -7.2%
10% -25.3% 44% -16.0%
15% -32.5% 43% -24.2%
20% -39.2% 42% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$101 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$790
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 50
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage619d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $640 $554 −$86 (-13%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 94¢ $75 $168 +$93 (+124%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$45 +46%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $97 −$96 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $76 −$75 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $99 −$98 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $198 +$200 +101%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$70 +69%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $159 −$156 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $103 −$101 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$124 +122%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $155 +$145 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$67 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 +$83 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $84 −$82 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $42 +$46 +109%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $68 −$67 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 +$57 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $96 −$94 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 +$75 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 +$53 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $145 −$143 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $152 +$148 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $462 −$371 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$93 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $246 +$454 +185%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$55 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 +$57 +109%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $203 +$137 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $61 +$89 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $183 +$197 +107%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $109 +$101 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $69 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $97 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 10h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $76 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $99 31h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $398 31h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $198 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $71 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $172 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 2d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 38¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $159 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 43¢ $103 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $152 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $64 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $70 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $76 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 51¢ $155 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $76 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $71 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $84 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $51 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.38 · official $789.49 (match) · 214 history records