Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

17 0x1743…e614 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$303 (+9%) realized +$312 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR13%break-even

Win rate13%4W / 26L

Drawdown67%max

Avg bet$72per market

Trades / day12.8pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$1,431now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +13%

net ROI/market (all)-34.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	30	-28.0%	-34.8%	13%	13%	+4.4%
≤30d	30	-28.0%	-34.8%	13%	13%	+4.4%
≤90d	30	-28.0%	-34.8%	13%	13%	+4.4%
all	30	-28.0%	-34.8%	13%	13%	+4.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.8%	13%	+4.4%
10%	-41.1%	13%	-5.6%
15%	-46.7%	13%	-14.7%
20%	-52.0%	13%	-23.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +34% → late -90% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$296 vs −$35 · ×8.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.32 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$1,431

Realized+$312

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)13%

Wins / losses4 / 26

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions16

Markets (closed)30 / 46

History coverage4d

Avg bet$72

Trades / day12.8

Drawdown67%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 16 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$500	$496	−$4 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Yes	41¢	42¢	$200	$207	+$7 (+4%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Yes	60¢	58¢	$100	$97	−$2 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Uzbekistan	57¢	56¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$100	$95	−$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$40	$42	+$2 (+6%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$40	$42	+$2 (+5%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$40	$38	−$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	14¢	16¢	$20	$22	+$2 (+11%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	15¢	16¢	$20	$22	+$2 (+10%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	15¢	16¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?	Jun 23	$28	−$28	-100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 23	$21	−$21	-100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia?	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran?	Jun 23	$7	−$7	-100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 23	$110	−$110	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$808	+$421	+52%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$28	−$27	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$31	+$169	+550%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 20	$51	+$261	+510%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	Jun 20	$51	+$333	+650%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 19	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 19	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia?	BUY Yes	8¢	$41	1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$41	1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$41	1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	57¢	$101	2h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	2h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	9h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$204	9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$505	9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	9h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,229	9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$808	12h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	1¢	$7	46h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	4¢	$7	46h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	11¢	$7	46h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	10¢	$7	46h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	12¢	$7	47h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?	BUY Yes	11¢	$7	47h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$7	47h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	6¢	$7	47h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	10¢	$103	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,431.19 · official $1,431.19 (match) · 63 history records