Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1743…158d
crypto · 109 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$882 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$888 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$256
Realized−$888
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses76 / 23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)99 / 109
History coverage73d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 10 History 99 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$889
7 days−$889
14 days−$889
30 days−$888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 81¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+29%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 92¢ 89¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$7 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 53% −$850
crypto 32% −$22
other 14% −$16
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -1.4% -10.8% 77% 22% -53.0%
≤30d 96 -1.4% -10.8% 77% 22% -52.8%
≤90d 99 -1.3% -10.7% 77% 22% -52.2%
all 99 -1.3% -10.7% 77% 22% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 22% -52.2%
10% -19.3% 15% -56.8%
15% -27.1% 12% -60.9%
20% -34.2% 10% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.41 · official $256.42 (match) · 320 history records