Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x1748…5e9e crypto 816 markets active 7h ago coverage 178d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 178d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$564 (-1%) realized −$558 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate59%478W / 326L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$741
sports 12% −$359
world 7% +$201
other 3% +$66
finance 2% +$111
politics 1% +$101
tech 0% +$23
culture 0% +$83
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 41% -17.7%
≤30d 40 +0.1% -9.5% 48% 40% -2.5%
≤90d 211 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 24% -8.9%
all 804 +0.5% -9.1% 59% 15% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 15% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 10% -18.6%
15% -25.7% 8% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized−$558
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses478 / 326
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions12
Markets (closed)804 / 816
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$135
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 804 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 77¢ 80¢ $77 $80 +$3 (+5%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? No 89¢ 88¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
England leading at halftime? No 60¢ 58¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 32¢ 32¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-14%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? No 66¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$16 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $13 +$8 +62%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 +$9 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$12 +134%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$12 +146%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $63 +$37 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $350 −$52 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $282 +$36 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $114 −$77 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $75 +$24 +33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 26 $224 +$58 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $269 +$143 +53%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 25 $9 −$2 -24%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $24 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $91 +$6 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $16 +$2 +10%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 23 $137 −$137 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 22 $72 +$228 +317%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 22 $23 −$16 -68%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 19 $89 −$9 -10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $267 +$34 +13%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 17 $38 +$6 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 15 $260 +$31 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 12 $103 +$9 +9%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $204 −$13 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $509 −$13 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5? May 05 $11 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $160 +$31 +20%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 05 $54 −$13 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 84¢ $35 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $13 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $10 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY No 66¢ $14 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 89¢ $37 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $11 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $7 7h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $13 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $9 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 97¢ $40 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $12 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $9 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $13 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 89¢ $37 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $9 25h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $13 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $7 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.65 · official $385.65 (match) · 3500 history records