Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1749…8e7b
world · 63 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage515d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $4 +$1 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $96 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $65 +$4 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $26 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $94 −$4 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $89 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $113 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $89 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $37 +$3 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $5 $0 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $49 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $44 −$1 -3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $82 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $3 $0 -10%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$10
politics 24% −$2
other 16% $0
sports 10% −$11
economics 2% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $5 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $12 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $3 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $17 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $25 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $39 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $39 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $30 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $20 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $51 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $16 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.2% -7.6% 33% 17% -8.6%
≤30d 24 +4.9% -5.1% 46% 12% -8.3%
≤90d 54 +1.8% -7.9% 26% 6% -9.1%
all 61 -1.7% -11.0% 30% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records