Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x174b…5a55 world 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23,644 (-16%) realized −$22,452 · open −$1,192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate37%38W / 65L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,279per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$426est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3,241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,440
14 days−$5,278
30 days−$13,944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$18,670
sports 13% −$2,489
other 2% −$1,544
crypto 2% −$1,029
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -65.4% -68.7% 20% 0% -62.6%
≤30d 43 -43.9% -49.2% 33% 19% -54.6%
≤90d 73 -35.2% -41.4% 37% 21% -19.7%
all 103 -31.4% -37.9% 37% 21% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 21% -24.5%
10% -43.8% 9% -31.7%
15% -49.3% 5% -38.3%
20% -54.2% 5% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,150) neutral
Persistence
early -26% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$528 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$3,241
Realized−$22,452
Unrealized−$1,192
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$426
Open positions11
Markets (closed)103 / 114
History coverage184d
Avg bet$1,279
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $3,448 $2,503 −$945 (-27%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $787 $549 −$238 (-30%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $78 $75 −$3 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No 12¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 24 $928 −$757 -82%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $581 +$47 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $491 −$351 -72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $428 −$352 -82%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $23 −$7 -29%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 +$27 +87%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $64 −$55 -86%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 19 $3 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3,273 +$87 +3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 16 $544 −$351 -64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,676 −$1,275 -76%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$8 -15%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 14 $143 −$115 -81%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $997 −$894 -90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,177 −$1,134 -96%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 13 $101 −$95 -93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3 −$1 -48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $6,185 −$5,115 -83%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $123 −$117 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $398 −$398 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $132 −$132 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $586 −$586 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $2,100 +$256 +12%
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $245 −$195 -80%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $69 +$5 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $2,490 −$1,354 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $613 −$596 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,519 +$174 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $423 −$317 -75%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $4,185 +$861 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $745 +$23 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $1,815 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$4 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $750 −$750 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 04 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $1 +$1 +70%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 20 $11,799 −$2,000 -17%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 20 $1,070 +$146 +14%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 20 $22,820 +$5,557 +24%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 20 $9,468 +$1,474 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17m
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 18m
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 18m
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 19m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $95 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $60 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 1h
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? BUY No 12¢ $4 1h
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $91 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $21 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $19 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $18 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $36 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $150 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 5d
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $28 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $29 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $32 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $8 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $8 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $521 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $50 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,241.48 · official $3,241.59 (match) · 1058 history records